--- title: "IMF forecasts 1.3% economic contraction for Pakistan, Middle East, and North Africa in 2026" description: "Most outlets led with the IMF's projection of a 1.3% economic contraction in Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa for 2026, attributing it to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran. Several also noted the expected rebound to 6.6% growth in 2027. A few outlets, including Business Recorder and BOL News, highlighted the differential impact on oil exporters and importers, while others like Express Tribune and Aaj News mentioned the \"exceptionally high uncertainty\" or risks from energy disruptions. The framing of the cause varied slightly, with some outlets placing more emphasis on the war's regional impact and others on broader economic factors." url: https://harzaviya.com/stories/15803-imf-sees-1-3-contraction-in-pakistan-middle-east-and-north site: HarZaviya language: en --- # IMF forecasts 1.3% economic contraction for Pakistan, Middle East, and North Africa in 2026 business · updated 23 Oct 2026, 5:38 AM PKT · 22–23 Oct 2026 · 13 articles from 11 outlets over 2 developments **HarZaviya summary** — how 11 outlets covered this, generated automatically from their headlines and excerpts: > Most outlets reported the IMF's projection of a 1.3% economic contraction in Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa for 2026, with several noting the expected rebound to 6.6% growth in 2027. A few outlets, including Business Recorder, Dawn, and BOL News, attributed the contraction to the "US-Israeli-led war against Iran," while others, like Arab News Pakistan and Profit, focused on the broader regional context or risk factors such as energy disruptions. The Express Tribune and Aaj News (English) highlighted the "exceptionally high uncertainty" in the outlook, while ProPakistani and Daily Times provided more general summaries without specifying the cause. ## How it developed Newest development first. Each carries its own coverage and, where we have one, our summary of it. ### 23 Oct 2026 — Pakistan GDP to contract 1.3pc in 2026: IMF (1 outlet) - **Business Recorder** — [Pakistan GDP to contract 1.3pc in 2026: IMF](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40445556/pakistan-gdp-to-contract-13pc-in-2026-imf) · 23 Oct 2026, 5:38 AM PKT > DUBAI: The IMF on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year due to the Iran war, followed by 6.6 percent growth in 2027, though it warned that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook. The International Monetary Fund said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3 percent as a result of the war’s impa... ### 22 Oct 2026 — IMF forecasts 1.3% economic contraction for Pakistan, Middle East, and North Africa in 2026 (11 outlets) > Most outlets led with the IMF's projection of a 1.3% economic contraction in Pakistan, the Middle East, and North Africa for 2026, attributing it to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran. Several also noted the expected rebound to 6.6% growth in 2027. A few outlets, including Business Recorder and BOL News, highlighted the differential impact on oil exporters and importers, while others like Express Tribune and Aaj News mentioned the "exceptionally high uncertainty" or risks from energy disruptions. The framing of the cause varied slightly, with some outlets placing more emphasis on the war's regional impact and others on broader economic factors. - **Aaj News (English)** — [Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan GDP to contract 1.3% in 2026, IMF says](https://english.aaj.tv/news/330477576/middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-gdp-to-contract-13-in-2026-imf-says) · 22 Oct 2026, 7:12 PM PKT > The IMF on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in the ‌Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year due to the Iran war, followed by 6.6% growth in 2027, though it warned that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook. The International Monetary Fund said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3% because of the war’s impact on energy production,... - **BOL News** — [Pakistan, Middle East, North Africa face sharp economic drop from Iran war, IMF says](https://www.bolnews.com/world/pakistan-middle-east-north-africa-face-sharp-economic-drop-from-iran-war-imf-says) · 22 Oct 2026, 2:53 PM PKT · 83% identical wording to the newest filing > IMF warns Iran war will cause sharp economic drop in Pakistan, Middle East, North Africa. Oil exporters are hit harder by energy disruptions; importers prove more resilient. - **Dunya News** — [IMF sees 1.3pc contraction in Pakistan, Middle East and North Africa in 2026](https://dunyanews.tv/en/Business/979063-imf-sees-13pc-contraction-in-pakistan-middle-east-and-north-africa-i) · 22 Oct 2026, 2:30 PM PKT · 86% identical wording to the newest filing > IMF says contraction result of Mideast war's impact on energy production, shipping, trade and confidence - **ProPakistani** — [IMF Forecasts 1.3% Economic Contraction Across Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan](https://propakistani.pk/2026/10/22/imf-forecasts-1-3-economic-contraction-across-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan/) · 22 Oct 2026, 1:47 PM PKT · 86% identical wording to the newest filing > The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects economic output across the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan to contract by 1.3… Read More - **Dawn** — [IMF sees 1.3pc contraction in Pakistan this year due to Iran war](https://www.dawn.com/news/2038985/imf-sees-13pc-contraction-in-pakistan-this-year-due-to-iran-war) · 22 Oct 2026, 1:35 PM PKT · 89% identical wording to the newest filing > The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in Pakistan, the Middle East and North Africa this year due to the US-Israeli-led war against Iran, followed by a rebound to 6.6 per cent growth in 2027, while warning that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook. The IMF said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3pc as... - **Profit** — [IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026](https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/10/22/imf-sees-13percent-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-2026) · 22 Oct 2026, 1:15 PM PKT · 85% identical wording to the newest filing > Main risks derive from further disruption to energy production and trade routes ‌that ⁠could drive energy prices higher, Fund says in its latest regional outlook - **Daily Times** — [IMF projects 1.3 percent economic contraction across Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan](https://dailytimes.com.pk/1570669/imf-projects-1-3-percent-economic-contraction-across-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan/) · 22 Oct 2026, 12:49 PM PKT · 88% identical wording to the newest filing > The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a sharp 1.3 percent contraction in economic output across the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan in 2026. Financial experts attribute this economic downturn directly to the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The regional warfare continues disrupting critical energy production facilities, major international shippi... - **Geo News** — [IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, Middle East and North Africa in 2026](https://www.geo.tv/latest/687744-imf-sees-13-contraction-in-pakistan-middle-east-and-north-africa-in-2026) · 22 Oct 2026, 12:13 PM PKT · 82% identical wording to the newest filing > Vehicles move past a warehouse yard with shipping containers near port area in Karachi, July 31, 2025. — ReutersIMF expects output to rebound sharply to 6.6% in 2027.Middle East conflict likely to abate in early 2027: IMF.Urges policymakers to prioritise maintaining price stability. - **Business Recorder** — [IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40445426/imf-sees-13-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-2026) · 22 Oct 2026, 12:00 PM PKT · 94% identical wording to the newest filing > DUBAI: The IMF on Thursday forecast a sharp drop in economic output in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan this year due to the ​US-Israeli-led war against Iran, followed by a rebound to 6.6% growth in ‌2027, while warning that further energy production disruptions could worsen the outlook. The International Monetary Fund said the region’s output was expected to contract by 1.3% as a res... - **Arab News Pakistan** — [IMF sees 1.3% contraction in Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan in 2026](https://www.arabnews.pk/pakistan/imf-sees-13-contraction-in-middle-east-north-africa-and-pakistan-in-2026-3004918) · 22 Oct 2026, 11:50 AM PKT · 84% identical wording to the newest filing - **The Express Tribune** — [IMF forecasts 1.3% contraction in Pakistan, 6.6% growth in 2027](https://tribune.com.pk/story/2636297/imf-forecasts-13-contraction-in-pakistan-66-growth-in-2027) · 22 Oct 2026, 8:46 AM PKT · 74% identical wording to the newest filing > Says outlook remains ​clouded by 'exceptionally high uncertainty' ## Part of a bigger story Other stories whose coverage resembles this one, nearest first. "% related" compares whole stories, not single articles — see [what the percentages mean](https://harzaviya.com/methodology). - [IMF and World Bank warn of economic risks from Middle East conflict for Pakistan](https://harzaviya.com/stories/15922-middle-east-conflict-threatens-pakistan-s-econom) · 23 Oct 2026 · 4 outlets · 84% related - [IMF revises Pakistan's inflation forecast to 9.9% for FY2026-27](https://harzaviya.com/stories/13985-imf-warns-inflation-in-pakistan-will-skyrocket-to-9-9) · 15 Oct 2026 · 13 outlets · 2 developments · 78% related - [Pakistan and IMF discuss economic impact of Middle East tensions](https://harzaviya.com/stories/14016-pakistan-imf-discuss-targeted-relief-as-middle-east-conflict) · 13 Oct 2026 · 2 outlets · 76% related - [Middle East conflict to contract regional output by 2.1% in 2026: WB](https://harzaviya.com/stories/12745-middle-east-conflict-to-contract-regional-output-by-2-1) · 7 Oct 2026 · 2 outlets · 75% related - [IMF warns Gulf economies will not return to pre-war growth soon](https://harzaviya.com/stories/14393-imf-warns-gulf-economies-will-not-return-to-pre-war-growth) · 16 Oct 2026 · 6 outlets · 75% related 13 articles from 11 outlets, 22–23 Oct 2026. 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